crypto-macro-regime_skill

Overview

This skill classifies the current crypto macro regime as Risk-On, Risk-Off, Neutral, or Extreme Fear and provides actionable bias adjustments. It combines Fear & Greed Index, BTC dominance, Reddit sentiment, on-chain signals, and macro news to produce a concise regime label, confidence score, and asset-specific recommendations. Use it for situational awareness, portfolio tilt, and trade sizing decisions.

How this skill works

The classifier ingests the Fear & Greed Index, BTC dominance trends, aggregated Reddit sentiment, selected on-chain metrics (difficulty, flows, network activity), and macro headlines to score market conditions. Scores and heuristics map into four regimes (Risk-On, Neutral, Risk-Off, Extreme Fear), with a confidence metric and directional bias. It returns regime label, bias magnitude per asset, key drivers that influenced the decision, and suggested portfolio allocation adjustments.

When to use it

• Daily macro briefings before trading or rebalancing
• To set directional bias for spot/derivatives exposure
• Before increasing or cutting position sizes in portfolios
• When assessing timing for contrarian entries after panic moves
• To add market context to research notes or client memos

Best practices

• Combine the regime output with position-level risk management and stop rules
• Use the confidence score to scale position size rather than binary on/off decisions
• Check recent macro headlines and funding rates if confidence is low
• Apply asset-specific adjustments—altcoins often require stronger Risk-On confirmation
• Re-evaluate intraday if a major macro event or security exploit occurs

Example use cases

• Generate a morning macro summary: regime label, drivers, and allocation tilt
• Decide whether to increase BTC long exposure during Extreme Fear contrarian setups
• Reduce altcoin allocation when classifier signals Risk-Off and BTC dominance rises
• Inform derivatives hedging: add short delta when Risk-Off confidence is high
• Set research priorities by highlighting key macro drivers affecting crypto sentiment