market-sizing_skill

Overview

This skill helps quantify market opportunity using TAM, SAM, and SOM frameworks and offers practical methodologies for defensible estimates. It guides users through top-down, bottom-up, and value-based calculations and highlights data sources, trend indicators, and common pitfalls. Use it to produce repeatable, transparent market sizing outputs for planning or investor conversations.

How this skill works

The skill inspects the requested scope (product, segment, geography, timeframe) and recommends an approach: top-down from industry reports, bottom-up from unit economics, or value-theory from customer impact. It walks through stepwise calculations, documents assumptions and sources, and classifies growth trends as INC/CONST/DEC. It also suggests scenario ranges, confidence levels, and sensitivity notes to make estimates actionable.

When to use it

• You need a TAM, SAM, SOM breakdown for business planning or fundraising.
• Estimating near-term obtainable revenue for go-to-market planning (1–3 years).
• Validating market claims in competitor or investor materials.
• Choosing between top-down, bottom-up, or value-based estimation for a new offer.
• Creating scenario models (bear/base/bull) or stress-testing assumptions.

Best practices

• Start with a clear scope: product, customer segment, geography, and time horizon.
• Prefer bottom-up where customer-level data exists; use top-down for quick checks.
• Document every assumption, source, currency, and data vintage for reproducibility.
• Provide scenario ranges and state confidence (High/Medium/Low) with reasoning.
• Avoid double-counting segments and be conservative when estimating SOM.

Example use cases

• Early-stage startup preparing a pitch: rapid TAM estimate plus conservative SOM for 3-year plan.
• Corporate strategy: hybrid top-down + bottom-up to size an adjacent market before resource allocation.
• Investor diligence: verify founders’ market claims by reconstructing TAM/SAM/SOM from public sources.
• Product launch: estimate initial obtainable customers and annual revenue using unit economics.
• Market monitoring: classify a market as INC/CONST/DEC using analyst projections and primary indicators.