scenario-war-room_skill

Overview

This skill models cascading multi-variable what-if scenarios across the entire business, not just single-assumption stress tests. It simulates how up to three concurrent shocks ripple through functions, identifies early warning signals, and recommends concrete hedges and trigger-based actions. Use it to prepare actionable responses before crises compound.

How this skill works

You define up to three quantified variables (what changes, probability, timeline). The tool maps domain-level impacts (finance, revenue, product, engineering, people, operations, security, marketing), then builds cascade chains showing how one effect triggers the next. It models three severity levels (Base, Stress, Severe), lists measurable trigger points, and outputs prioritized hedges with owners and deadlines.

When to use it

• Facing complex risks that could interact (e.g., customer loss + fundraise delay)
• Making strategic decisions with significant downside exposure
• Preparing board-level contingency plans and pre-mortems
• Designing early-warning monitoring and trigger systems
• Prioritizing cross-functional hedges before stress compounds

Best practices

• Limit scenarios to a maximum of three variables to avoid noise
• Quantify impacts where possible (ARR, runway months, headcount) or use defensible ranges
• Map effects by domain owner to ensure accountability
• Name the cascade explicitly and show where it can be interrupted
• Define clear, measurable trigger points for early detection
• Pair each scenario with concrete hedges, cost, owner, and deadline

Example use cases

• Simulate losing a top customer (28% ARR) while a fundraise slips six months and a lead engineer resigns
• Prepare a Series A contingency plan for missed ARR target plus a competitive raise
• Run a pre-mortem for a product launch with market contraction and hiring freezes
• Create a board-ready brief showing runway impact, trigger signals, and immediate hedges
• Prioritize actions (credit line, retention bonuses, diversification) to buy time during cascading stress