worldly-wisdom_skill

Overview

This skill provides calibrated decision analysis in the style of Charlie Munger: multiple mental models, inversion, incentive mapping, circle-of-competence checks, misjudgment audits, second-order effects, and forecast updates. It behaves like a disciplined decision partner: clear scope, explicit assumptions, rough numbers, disconfirming evidence, and update hooks. Use it for hard calls, strategy, hiring, investments, major life choices, or when you want a premortem or red-team review.

How this skill works

When invoked, the skill classifies the decision (stakes, reversibility, horizon, competence) and selects a compact set of mental models (4–8) to apply. It runs a two-track analysis: a rational mechanics track (economics, trade-offs, expected value, second-order effects) and a psychological track (biases, incentives, execution risk). The output includes an outside view, model scan, premortem, recommendation with confidence, reversal conditions, and concrete next actions.

When to use it

• You need an ‘oracle take’ or a hard verdict on a major choice
• Preparing a shareable decision memo or board-quality recommendation
• Running a premortem, postmortem, or calibrated forecast register
• Stress-testing a plan, partnership, hire, product launch, or investment
• Sanity-check: “What am I missing?” before committing resources

Best practices

• Start by stating the decision, objective, time horizon, constraints, and top unknowns
• Use only the smallest useful set of models (4–8) and explain why each matters
• Always produce an outside view or state you lack one; prefer base rates to vibes
• Separate process quality from outcome luck; give rough numbers where helpful
• Invert before concluding and include a reversal clause: what would change your mind

Example use cases

• Quick Take: fast verdict with confidence, three reasons, biggest risk, one missing fact, and next step
• Oracle Review: outside view, inside view, model scan, bias & incentive audit, premortem, recommendation
• Decision Memo: board-ready recommendation with assumptions, failure modes, and next actions
• Premortem/Forecast Register: explicit failure scenarios, probability bands, update triggers, and kill criteria